Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 21.046368 24.603429 28.920589 34.659721 42.273302 52.316530 67.108813
2025-01-19 16.048632 19.867374 24.948353 32.500108 44.032413 62.194122 96.167004
2025-01-26 15.381637 20.085244 26.922744 38.326211 58.738350 99.003367 207.350894
2025-02-02 14.169973 19.174519 26.905916 40.932643 69.416627 138.226129 417.578176
2025-02-09 12.386035 17.065484 24.524819 38.682109 69.564764 154.231509 626.942399
2025-02-16 11.622568 16.394382 24.322863 40.326075 79.015379 208.517421 1618.663607
2025-02-23 10.752045 15.417173 23.399135 40.251552 84.351184 259.518245 4935.947319
2025-03-02 10.006405 14.547756 22.514724 40.010207 89.226994 321.573931 42153.839308
2025-03-09 9.471225 13.968135 22.066235 40.615198 97.199610 428.900122 NaN
2025-03-16 8.746872 12.986545 20.716225 38.783617 96.167719 475.004236 NaN
2025-03-23 8.292611 12.437800 20.138961 38.713908 101.637760 613.447372 NaN
2025-03-30 7.727159 11.642954 18.980424 36.935746 99.643443 668.000068 NaN
2025-04-06 7.082974 10.690723 17.472786 34.160093 93.124778 651.249098 NaN
2025-04-13 6.554791 9.917860 16.269144 32.019799 88.624617 660.261084 NaN
2025-04-20 6.740412 10.460235 17.830403 37.710977 124.304207 2453.035465 NaN
2025-04-27 6.637121 10.449590 18.216034 40.254274 149.258423 9668.896367 NaN
2025-05-04 6.225584 9.815286 17.147644 38.058269 142.843909 11073.713472 NaN
2025-05-11 6.091119 9.708784 17.257214 39.662543 164.778378 300383.670923 NaN
2025-05-18 5.866006 9.406967 16.883979 39.589835 174.898833 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 5.649816 9.108292 16.487637 39.354362 183.997860 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 5.493770 8.919565 16.332349 39.944603 202.527868 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 5.227875 8.493180 15.567496 38.157349 194.920657 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 5.065726 8.269511 15.277562 38.089308 206.501647 NaN NaN